Last week I watched a colleague spend 20 minutes in video chat defending a project everyone knew was a waste of resources. The metrics were terrible. The client feedback was brutal. But he kept finding reasons why it was actually working.
We've all done this. Hell, I’ve done this plenty of times with my own side projects.
It's called confirmation bias and the tricky part is it feels like being loyal to your ideas.
The thing is confirmation bias isn't just some abstract psychology term. It's the reason why that disastrous product launch happened, why hiring decisions keep backfiring, and why strategic plans fall apart six months later.
Your brain is literally wired to seek evidence that supports what you already believe. And dismiss everything that doesn't.
I came across this fascinating analysis from McKinsey that showed how confirmation bias destroys financial decision-making. CFOs were cherry-picking data to support their preferred investment strategies while completely ignoring red flags staring them in the face.
But here's where it gets really interesting.
Recent research found that even medical professionals, people literally trained to be objective, fall into this trap during diagnosis. They'd latch onto their first hypothesis and then seek symptoms that confirmed it.
Think about your last big decision. How much energy did you spend looking for reasons it was wrong?
The professionals who consistently make better calls do three things differently:
First, they assign someone to play devil's advocate. Not fake pushback, but genuine "here's why this could fail" analysis. Make it their actual job to find holes.
Second, they actively seek disconfirming evidence. Before diving deeper into any decision, they ask: "What would prove me wrong?" Then they go looking for it.
Third, they delay initial judgments. The longer you can sit with uncertainty, the less your brain tries to resolve it with convenient confirmations.
And trust me, uncertainty feels terrible. Your brain wants to land on an answer and stick with it. But that comfort is expensive.
The reality is this: confirmation bias feels like being thorough when you're actually being lazy. You're letting your brain take shortcuts instead of doing the hard work of genuine analysis.
Next time you're facing a big decision, try this: spend as much time looking for reasons you're wrong as you do collecting evidence you're right. It's uncomfortable as hell.
But it's also how you stop leaving money on the table.
Did this email land for you today? Forward it on to someone else you think would love it too.
Cheers, Alex
Disclaimer: I'm a curious researcher, not a licensed psychologist. I study these concepts because I believe understanding how our minds work can help us navigate life more effectively. This content is for educational purposes only and should not replace professional advice. Please consult qualified professionals for personal guidance. Individual results may vary, and readers should use their own judgment when applying these concepts.